Public Opinion

Indicator: Social Democrats and Sweden Democrats stand out in new survey

Indicator has released its latest opinion poll with current voter support for Sweden's parliamentary parties. The survey provides an updated picture of the political landscape and shows clear changes for several parties compared to the previous survey from Indicator.

Summary of results

• Left Party – 7.20 % (Δ vs previous: –0.10 p.p.)
• Social Democrats – 36.00 % (Δ vs previous: –0.70 p.p.)
• Green Party – 6.30 % (Δ vs previous: +1.00 p.p.)
• Centre Party – 4.90 % (Δ vs previous: –0.40 p.p.)
• Liberals – 2.10 % (Δ vs previous: –0.70 p.p.)
• Moderates – 18.00 % (Δ vs previous: –0.20 p.p.)
• Christian Democrats – 3.20 % (Δ vs previous: –0.60 p.p.)
• Sweden Democrats – 21.00 % (Δ vs previous: +2.00 p.p.)

Of the parties, Liberals and Christian Democrats are below the threshold of 4 %, while the others clear the threshold in this survey.

Trends and history

Compared to Indicator’s survey from June, the Social Democrats have lost 0.7 percentage points, and the Sweden Democrats have gained 2.0 percentage points. The Green Party also shows a clear increase of 1.0 percentage point. Liberals and Christian Democrats both show decreases and remain below the threshold. The Moderates and Centre Party have small changes and stay stable around previous levels.

The results are in line with other recent surveys from, for example, Ipsos and Novus, where the Social Democrats and Sweden Democrats are the largest opposition parties. The Green Party's rise and the weak figures for smaller parties are also recurring themes across several institutes.

Methodology and uncertainty

Indicator’s survey is based on interviews with a representative sample of voters. The margin of error varies depending on the party size and sample scope. Smaller changes between surveys may fall within the margin of error, especially for parties near the threshold.

Frequently asked questions about opinion polls

• What does the change in percentage points mean?
  The change in percentage points (p.p.) indicates how a party's support has increased or decreased compared to a previous survey, providing an indication of the trend over time.
• How often is public opinion measured?
  Opinion polls are regularly published by several institutes, often monthly or more frequently before elections.
• What is the parliamentary threshold?
  The parliamentary threshold in Sweden is 4 %. Parties receiving less than this typically do not gain seats in the parliament.
• How should margin of error be interpreted?
  The margin of error indicates the interval within which the true support is likely to lie. Small differences may be due to statistical uncertainty.
• What is the difference between voter support and seats?
  Voter support is the percentage of voters indicating they would vote for a party. Seats are the positions the party gets in parliament, which depend on the election result and electoral system.