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Inflation May 2026 – KPIF Rises to 1.5 Percent
Inflation according to KPIF increased to 1.5 percent in May 2026, a clear rise compared to April. It remains below the Riksbank's target of 2 percent. CPI inflation is significantly lower, reflecting differences in how interest costs affect the two measures.
Monthly Figures
KPIF inflation for May 2026 amounts to 1.5 percent, up from 0.8 percent in April. CPI inflation for the same period is 0.8 percent. The difference between KPIF and CPI mainly depends on how interest costs are handled in each index: KPIF excludes direct effects of interest rate changes, while CPI includes them.
After a period of low inflation, a clear increase in KPIF is now visible for May, although the level is still below the inflation target.
What Does the Outcome Mean?
The rising inflation indicates that prices are increasing faster than in previous months, which can affect household purchasing power and companies' costs. Since inflation is still below the target, price pressures remain moderate. The Riksbank's repo rate remains at 1.75 percent, helping to restrain both consumption and investment, but the interest rate level is not low enough to stimulate a rapid increase in prices.
Mortgage Examples and Personal Loans
With a repo rate of 1.75 percent, mortgage rates for new loans often end up at least 1 percentage point higher, depending on banks' margins. For a mortgage of 1, 3, or 5 million SEK, this results in significantly higher monthly costs compared to when interest rates were lower. Personal loans are also affected, where the margin is often around 2.5 percentage points above the repo rate. Households' total monthly costs are additionally influenced by amortization requirements.
History and Trends
Inflation according to KPIF has fluctuated significantly over the past two years. After peaks above 3 percent in 2025, the level fell below 2 percent from early 2026, with a temporary low of 0.8 percent in April. The rise to 1.5 percent in May marks a clear change compared to the low levels of recent months. CPI has been even lower during the same period, often below 1 percent, indicating that interest costs have had a dampening effect on CPI inflation.
Forecast and Outlook
If price increases continue, inflation could approach the Riksbank's target. Much depends on developments in energy and food prices, as well as whether the repo rate is maintained or adjusted. The Riksbank will need to weigh inflation developments against growth and the labor market in upcoming interest rate decisions.
Frequently Asked Questions About Inflation
- What is the difference between CPI and KPIF?
CPI is affected by changes in household mortgage rates, while KPIF excludes these interest effects and provides a picture of underlying inflation. - Why does the Riksbank use KPIF as its target variable?
KPIF offers a more stable view of inflation since it is not directly affected by interest rate changes, which facilitates monetary policy. - How are mortgage rates affected by inflation?
If inflation rises, the Riksbank may raise the repo rate, which often leads to higher mortgage rates for households. - What drives inflation up or down?
Price developments in energy, food, and services are key factors behind inflation movements. - How quickly can inflation return to the target?
This depends on several factors, including global price developments and the Riksbank's monetary policy.
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