Public Opinion

Novus: Social Democrats remain the largest – SD loses ground

Novus's latest opinion poll shows that the Social Democrats maintain their position as the largest party, while the Sweden Democrats have declined slightly. The survey provides an up-to-date picture of voter support for the parliamentary parties ahead of 2026's political landscape.

Summary of results

• Left Party – 6.90 % (Δ vs previous: +0.7 p.p.)
• Social Democrats – 34.20 % (Δ: +0.1 p.p.)
• Green Party – 5.50 % (Δ: +0.4 p.p.)
• Center Party – 4.80 % (Δ: -0.1 p.p.)
• Liberals – 2.40 % (Δ: ±0.0 p.p.)
• Moderates – 17.50 % (Δ: -0.1 p.p.)
• Christian Democrats – 4.30 % (Δ: +0.4 p.p.)
• Sweden Democrats – 22.50 % (Δ: -1.2 p.p.)

Among the parliamentary parties, the Liberals are still below the 4 percent threshold.

Trends and history

Compared to the previous Novus measurement on December 17, 2025, the Left Party, Green Party, and Christian Democrats have strengthened their positions slightly. The Social Democrats remain at a stable level, while the Sweden Democrats have decreased by 1.2 percentage points. The Moderates and Center Party are close to their previous levels, and the Liberals support remains low and unchanged.

Looking at recent months' results from several institutes, a stable lead for the Social Democrats is visible, with the Liberals in a continued pressured situation below the threshold. The Sweden Democrats have fallen from peak levels above 23 percent earlier this fall.

Blocks and seats

Novus does not report block summaries or seat distributions in this survey.

Method and uncertainty

The current survey was conducted by Novus. Usually, the results are based on interviews with a nationally representative sample of Swedish voters. The margin of error for individual parties is typically up to about ±1 percentage point, depending on the party's size.

Frequently asked questions about opinion polls

• What does the change in percentage points (Δ) mean?
  The change in percentage points indicates the difference in voter support for a party compared to the previous measurement from the same institute.
• How often are opinion polls published?
  Opinion institutes publish measurements regularly, often every or every other month, but the frequency varies between institutes.
• What does the 4 percent parliamentary threshold mean?
  Parties receiving less than 4 percent of the votes in a parliamentary election generally do not receive any seats in the parliament.
• How should the margin of error be interpreted?
  The margin of error indicates the interval within which the true support for a party is likely to lie, given the sample and the number of respondents.
• What is the difference between voter support and seats?
  Voter support shows the proportion of voters who would vote for a party, while seats indicate how many positions the party would get in the parliament in an election.