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Novus: Social Democrats remain largest – small changes among other parties
Novus's latest opinion poll shows that the Social Democrats maintain their position as the largest party. At the same time, the changes between parties are small compared to the previous month, but several parties are close to the parliamentary threshold. The survey provides an up-to-date picture of the political situation in February 2026.
Results at a glance
- Left Party – 7.40% (Δ vs previous: +0.5 p.p.)
- Social Democrats – 34.60% (Δ vs previous: +0.4 p.p.)
- Green Party – 5.10% (Δ vs previous: -0.4 p.p.)
- Center Party – 5.20% (Δ vs previous: +0.4 p.p.)
- Liberals – 2.10% (Δ vs previous: -0.3 p.p.)
- Moderates – 17.50% (Δ vs previous: ±0.0 p.p.)
- Christian Democrats – 3.80% (Δ vs previous: -0.5 p.p.)
- Swedish Democrats – 22.90% (Δ vs previous: +0.4 p.p.)
The Green Party, Center Party, and Christian Democrats are close to the 4% threshold. The Liberals remain below the threshold according to this survey.
Novus shows a stable opinion landscape with only minor changes, but several parties are near the threshold, and small shifts could have significant implications.
Trends and history
Compared to the previous Janua ry Novus poll, the Left Party (+0.5), Social Democrats (+0.4), Center Party (+0.4), and Swedish Democrats (+0.4) have increased slightly. The Moderates are unchanged. The Green Party (-0.4), Christian Democrats (-0.5), and Liberals (-0.3) have experienced marginal declines. The trend of slightly increasing support for S and SD, along with pressure on smaller parties, is also seen in other institutes over recent months. The Liberals have been below the threshold in all Novus polls since November.
Other institutes show similar patterns: the Social Democrats remain steady around 34–35%, and the Swedish Democrats around 21–23%. The Moderates have not exceeded 18% since fall 2025. Competition remains fierce around the threshold for the Green Party, Center Party, Christian Democrats, and Liberals.
Methodology and uncertainty
Novus uses a nationally representative sample of voters. Margins of error are generally around ±1–2 percentage points per party, meaning small changes between polls often fall within the margin of error.
Frequently asked questions about opinion polls
- What does the change in percentage points (p.p.) mean?
It is the difference in voter support compared to the previous survey from the same institute. An increase of +0.5 p.p. means, for example, that the party has gained half a percentage point. - How often is opinion polling conducted?
Most institutes publish new polls every month, but sometimes more frequent polls are conducted before elections or during special events. - What is the parliamentary threshold?
A party must receive at least 4% of the votes in the parliamentary election to gain seats in the parliament. - How is the margin of error interpreted?
The margin of error indicates the range within which the true support is likely to lie. Small differences may be due to chance rather than actual opinion shifts. - What is the difference between voter support and seats?
Voter support is the percentage of voters who indicate they would vote for a party. Seats are the positions a party obtains in the parliament, which depends on the election result and the threshold.
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