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Latest opinion poll from Indicators: Social Democrats strengthen, Liberals below threshold
Indicator has today presented its latest survey on party support in Sweden. The measurement shows small changes for most parties, but several are close to the parliamentary threshold. The results are interesting in light of recent developments over the past months.
Summary of results
- Left Party – 7.50% (Δ vs previous: +0.40 p.p.)
- Social Democrats – 35.40% (Δ vs previous: +0.20 p.p.)
- Green Party – 4.70% (Δ vs previous: -1.70 p.p.)
- Center Party – 5.30% (Δ vs previous: +1.50 p.p.)
- Liberals – 1.40% (Δ vs previous: -0.70 p.p.)
- Moderates – 18.90% (Δ vs previous: +0.50 p.p.)
- Christian Democrats – 3.90% (Δ vs previous: +1.00 p.p.)
- Swedish Democrats – 21.40% (Δ vs previous: ±0.00 p.p.)
The parties below the 4% threshold in this poll are the Liberals (1.40%) and the Christian Democrats (3.90%).
The Liberals are at their lowest support in a long time, while the Center Party and Christian Democrats see slight increases, and the Green Party approaches the threshold.
Trends and history
Compared to Indicator's previous measurement on January 7, most changes are small. The Liberals lose further support, now at 1.40%, the lowest support for the party in recent months according to Indicator's series. The Green Party decreases by 1.7 percentage points and now just exceeds the threshold. The Center Party increases by 1.5 percentage points to 5.3%, and the Christian Democrats increase by 1.0 percentage point to 3.9%, but remain below the threshold. The Social Democrats and Moderates see marginal increases, while the Sweden Democrats remain steady at 21.4%.
Looking at previous measurements from other institutes, the Social Democrats and Sweden Democrats remain stable at the top. The Liberals have had weak support over a longer period and have not exceeded the threshold in any major surveys during January.
Method and uncertainty
Indicator's opinion survey is based on a sample of voters. The exact method, sample size, and margin of error are not specified in this summary. Generally, opinion polls have some statistical uncertainty, especially for small parties near the threshold.
Frequently asked questions about opinion polls
- What does the change in percentage points (p.p.) mean?
The change in percentage points indicates the difference from the previous measurement, showing whether the party has gained or lost support. - How often are opinion polls published?
Major institutes usually publish new figures every or every other month. Some publish more frequently during election years. - What does the parliamentary threshold mean?
The threshold is 4%. Parties receiving less than this in the election typically do not gain seats in parliament. - How does the margin of error affect the results?
The margin of error means the actual support could be slightly higher or lower than the measured result, especially for smaller parties. - What is the difference between voter support and seats?
Voter support is the percentage of voters who say they would vote for a party. Seats are the positions the party would get in parliament based on this support.
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