Gaming Market Q2 2025 – Revenue, Trends, and Forecasts

Gaming Market Q2 2025: Where Is Revenue Heading?

Ahead of the Swedish Gambling Authority's quarterly report for April–June 2025, unusual uncertainty prevails in the gaming industry. After an unexpectedly weak start to the year – where the licensed market generated SEK 6.61 billion, a 0.9 percent decline compared to Q1 2024 – the question is whether spring can break the trend. What are the arguments for and against a boost during the year's second quarter?

Q1's Slump: Why Did Revenue Fall?

The decline in the first quarter is fundamentally no coincidence. Several contributing factors led Swedes to play less:

• Pressed households: Inflation has continued to bite, and households prioritize essential purchases over entertainment. Casino and betting activities have moved further down the priority list.
• Strong previous year's quarter: Q1 2024 included both World Cup qualifiers and a strong Christmas season – creating a high comparison base and amplifying this year's decline.
• More self-exclusions: The number of Swedes who have excluded themselves via Spelpaus passed 120,000 at the end of the quarter, an increase of nearly 4 percent compared to Q4 2024. This is a clear sign that responsibility measures are effective, but it also impacts operators' revenue.

Seasonal Effects: What Does History Say?

Traditionally, spring tends to bring a slight uptick for the gaming market. The statistics tell a clear story:

With a two-year average of +2.7 percent, it is reasonable to expect Q2 to continue on the same path – especially considering this year's sports calendar.

Three Factors Shaping Q2 2025

• Major sporting events: The NHL playoffs, Champions League final, and Euro qualifiers in June attract both sports enthusiasts and casual players. Historically, these events generate clear revenue spikes.
• Improved household finances: According to the June 2025 Economic Outlook from the National Institute of Economic Research, real wages have turned upward – giving households more room for gaming. Additionally, spring and early summer weather changes have led many Swedes to spend more time indoors, often resulting in increased activity on online casinos.
• New advertising guidelines incoming: The Consumer Agency's new regulations for gambling advertising (KOVFS 2025:2) come into effect in September, but several major operators have already started scaling down their campaigns. This may dampen growth somewhat already in Q2.

Channeling: The Industry’s Safety Net

An important stabilizing factor for the Swedish gaming market is the high level of channeling. According to the Swedish Gambling Authority's 2024 annual report, approximately 85 percent of all gambling occurs with licensed operators. Only around 5 percent is estimated to be entirely illegal gambling targeting Swedish consumers. This means that even in times of economic uncertainty, most revenue remains within the country and appears in official statistics.

Forecast for Q2 2025: Is SEK 7 Billion Possible?

Based on recent trends and this year's sports calendar, much points to Q2 2025 landing in the SEK 6.8–7.0 billion range. Plenty of sports and gradually improving household finances provide upward momentum. At the same time, it’s difficult to foresee a major growth surge: households remain cautious, and marketing has been tightened.

A more pessimistic scenario – where households tighten their purse strings and operators continue to cut back on campaigns – points instead to SEK 6.65–6.70 billion. Overall, the outlook suggests a cautious recovery rather than a dramatic turnaround.

Operators’ Challenges and Opportunities

For industry players, it is now especially important to focus on retention – that is, keeping existing customers. Customer acquisition costs are expected to rise this fall as new advertising regulations take effect. Therefore, maximizing live offers, personalizing communication, and actively promoting responsible gambling are crucial.

I believe that clear deposit and time limits, along with simple self-test and self-exclusion tools, will be key to both meeting legal requirements and ensuring long-term profitability. Players seek security and transparency – and those operators who deliver on these will be strongest when the market turns upward again.

Questions Investors Often Ask

• Which gambling formats have the greatest growth potential? Mobile sports betting and new, fast-paced game variants typically account for most of Q2’s increase. Esports and live betting are areas to watch closely.
• How are affiliates affected by new legislation? After September 1, affiliates will also need to comply with moderation rules in their marketing. Several smaller networks are expected to exit the market, which may reduce traffic volumes but increase the quality of the players that do convert.

Looking Ahead: A Transitional Year for the Swedish Gaming Market

Q2 2025 is expected to be a transitional year – a cautious recovery after a weak start, but not yet back to the levels seen during record winter quarters. The high level of channeling protects against larger declines and paves the way for a potentially strong finish to the year, as household finances improve further and new advertising rules settle in.

Operators that successfully combine innovation, responsible gaming, and effective retention will be best prepared for the increased competition in the fall. The Swedish Gambling Authority’s Q2 report will serve as a litmus test for the resilience of the Swedish market amid ongoing change.

More Questions About the Gaming Market in Q2 2025?

Do you have more questions about industry developments, Swedish gambling formats, or applicable laws? Feel free to contact the Swedish Gambling Authority or industry organizations for current statistics and guidance.