Inflation

Inflation in October 2024: KPIF drops to 1.5%

The latest inflation report from SCB shows that the KPIF (Consumer Price Index with fixed interest rates) for October 2024 stands at 1.5%. This is an increase from September's 1.1%, but still remains at a low level compared to previous months. The CPI, which includes interest costs, is at 1.6% for the same period. This development marks a stabilization of inflation after a turbulent period in 2023.

Riksbank's Decision and Economic Forecasts

With the current repo rate at 2.75%, the Riksbank has lowered the rate from 3.25% in October. This reduction comes in response to the declining inflation and is part of the Riksbank's strategy to stimulate the economy. Historically, we have seen a significant decrease in inflation from the peak levels at the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023, when KPIF was above 9%.

Economists predict that the Riksbank may continue to further lower the interest rate if inflation remains low. This would mean lower costs for borrowers, which can stimulate consumption and investments.

Mortgage Calculation: What Does Your Loan Cost?

For those considering taking out a mortgage, it is important to understand how interest rate cuts can affect monthly costs. Below is a calculation for mortgages with an assumed bank markup of 1%:

• 1 million kronor: With an interest rate of 3.75% (2.75% + 1%), the monthly cost is approximately 3,750 kronor.
• 3 million kronor: At the same rate, the monthly cost is around 11,250 kronor.
• 5 million kronor: At the same rate, the monthly cost is about 18,750 kronor.

For personal loans, which often have higher interest rates than mortgages, a reduction in the repo rate can also mean lower costs. This makes it more attractive for consumers to consolidate debts or finance larger purchases.

Effects on Food Prices, Fuel Prices, and Energy Prices

The lower inflation can also impact the prices of goods and services. Food prices have been a significant factor in previous inflation increases, but with stabilized inflation, consumers can expect less price fluctuations in the future. Fuel prices and energy prices, which are often volatile, can also stabilize, providing households and businesses with better cost predictability.

Summary

The latest inflation report indicates a continued stabilization of Sweden's economy. With KPIF at 1.5% and a lowered repo rate, there are expectations that the Riksbank will continue to adjust its monetary policy to support economic growth. This is good news for borrowers and consumers, who can look forward to lower costs and a more stable price development for goods and services.