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KD back over the threshold – but Liberal Party voters are divided on SD
The latest voter barometer from Novus for March 2026 indicates that the Christian Democrats (KD) have made a statistically significant increase and have once again crossed the parliament's four percent threshold. At the same time, the Liberal Party's (L) previous decline has been halted following increased media attention, but the party shows a clear internal division among its supporters regarding the view on the Sweden Democrats (SD) in a future government. SD has lost support but is, according to the poll, still larger than the Moderates (M).
Why does this matter ahead of the 2026 election?
- KD's return over the threshold: With KD now back over the parliamentary threshold, a potential right-wing government becomes possible again if current conditions hold. Without KD in parliament, the government options on the right would have been significantly weaker.
- Liberal Party's division on SD: Only slightly more than half of the Liberal Party's own supporters support letting SD into a government. This shows that there is no unified opinion among L's voters, even though the party leadership cooperates with SD. Such internal disagreement can affect the party's position in future negotiations and create uncertainty regarding which government options are actually possible after the election.
- SD's loss but continued size: SD remains larger than M, despite the decline. This can affect the balance of power within the opposition and the demands SD may make in any potential government negotiations.
How can you as a voter interpret and use the opinion climate?
- Be cautious about interpreting polls as election results: Opinion polls are snapshots, and especially for parties close to the threshold, such as KD and L, small changes can have a major impact. Statistical uncertainty makes it wise to look at trends over several polls rather than drawing conclusions from a single month.
- Internal division can affect party behavior: If you are considering voting for a party where the voter base is divided on cooperation, for example L and the question of SD, it may be worth following how the party and its voters develop up to the election. Internal conflicts can lead to unexpected choices after the election.
- Uncertainty regarding government formation: With more parties close to the threshold and divided electorates, uncertainty increases regarding which government options are actually possible after the election. It is therefore extra important to stay updated on the opinion climate and the parties' statements on the government question.
- Your vote can carry weight: When parties are close to the threshold, every vote can be decisive for which parties enter parliament and thus for the entire government formation.
Things to keep in mind when following the polls
- Opinion polls show trends, not exact election results.
- Data in this article applies to March 2026; the situation can change rapidly, especially during election campaigns.
- The Liberal Party's division concerns supporters, not necessarily the party leadership's official line.
- SD's size should be interpreted cautiously without drawing far-reaching conclusions based on a single poll.
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