Public Opinion
- Articles
- Public Opinion
Novus Opinion Poll 2026-05-21: Social Democrats Deviate Significantly
The latest opinion poll from Novus, published on May 21, 2026, provides a snapshot of party support during the period May 4–17. The survey stands out with a startling figure for the Social Democrats, listed at 330.9 percent. It is clear that this is an anomaly or a technical error, as no other polls or historical results show anything similar. The figures for other parties are closer to previous levels and indicate minor changes.
Summary of the Results
- Left Party: 8.8% (+1.2)
- Social Democrats: 330.9% (+298.5)
- Green Party: 7.1% (+1.0)
- Centre Party: 6.0% (−0.6)
- Liberals: 2.4% (−0.5)
- Moderates: 18.2% (−0.2)
- Christian Democrats: 4.8% (±0.0)
- Swedish Democrats: 19.2% (−0.6)
Compared to Novus's previous survey, the changes are small for most parties, except for the clearly erroneous figure for the Social Democrats. The Left Party and Green Party have increased slightly, while the Centre Party, Liberals, Moderates, and Swedish Democrats have marginally decreased. The Christian Democrats remain at the same level.
What Has Actually Changed
Aside from the deviant result for the Social Democrats, the support levels for other parties show limited change. The most noticeable movements are the Left Party's increase of 1.2 percentage points and the Green Party's rise of 1.0 percentage point. The Centre Party and Swedish Democrats each lose 0.6 percentage points, while the Liberals decrease by 0.5 percentage points. These changes are small and within the normal fluctuations between polls.
Parties Near the Threshold
The Liberals remain below the four-percent parliamentary threshold with 2.4 percent. The Christian Democrats are just above the threshold at 4.8 percent and need to stay at this level to secure parliamentary representation. The Green Party is also relatively close to the threshold but has increased to 7.1 percent in this poll.
It is important to remember that a single opinion poll, especially with such implausible figures as for the Social Democrats, does not provide an accurate picture of the political situation. To gain a better understanding, it is advisable to compare multiple polls from different institutes over time. The latest and most representative figures are always compiled on the opinion side.
Historical data from other institutes during the spring show that the Social Democrats' support has consistently been around 32–34 percent, further confirming that the result in this Novus poll for the S is an anomaly. The support levels for other parties largely follow the same patterns as before.
How Should the Poll Be Interpreted
The Novus poll from May 21, 2026, should be read with caution, especially regarding the figure for the Social Democrats. Small changes for other parties are common and may be due to temporary opinion swings or statistical uncertainty. To draw conclusions about trends or voter shifts, it is wise to consider the entire pattern of polls over time.
Frequently Asked Questions About the Opinion Poll
Why does the Social Democrats show 330.9 percent in this poll?
It is obviously an anomaly or reporting error. Previous polls show the Social Democrats at around 32–34 percent.
How close are the Liberals and Christian Democrats to the threshold?
The Liberals are below the threshold at 2.4 percent, while the Christian Democrats are at 4.8 percent and thus qualify in this poll.
How should small changes between polls be interpreted?
Small changes are common and may be due to chance or methodological differences. It is better to look at trends over multiple polls.
Sweden's national debt
-
Demoskop May 28, 2026: Social Democrats Lose, MP and KD Increase
Thu, 28 May 2026 - 19:35 -
Up to 25% off experiences for mom – Celebrate Mother’s Day with Live it
Tue, 26 May 2026 - 12:00
