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Demoskop March Poll: Social Democrats Drop, Liberals Over Threshold
Demoskop has published its latest opinion poll ahead of the parliamentary election. The survey shows clear changes for several parties, especially the Social Democrats and the Liberals. The measurement provides an up-to-date picture of the political landscape at the end of March 2026.
Summary of results
- Vänsterpartiet – 7.50 % (Δ +0.70 p.p.)
- Socialdemokraterna – 31.10 % (Δ –2.20 p.p.)
- Miljöpartiet – 6.60 % (Δ +0.30 p.p.)
- Centern – 5.90 % (Δ +0.40 p.p.)
- Liberalerna – 4.50 % (Δ +2.00 p.p.)
- Moderaterna – 17.30 % (Δ +0.10 p.p.)
- Kristdemokraterna – 5.00 % (Δ –0.30 p.p.)
- Sverigedemokraterna – 19.90 % (Δ –1.30 p.p.)
Among the parliamentary parties, all are now above the 4% threshold. The Liberals have strengthened their position compared to the previous measurement.
The Liberals cross the threshold comfortably for the first time in a long while. The Social Democrats lose the most in this poll.
Trends and history
The Social Democrats record their lowest support in Demoskop's polls since the beginning of the year, after a decrease of 2.2 percentage points compared to February. The Liberals show a clear rise, reaching 4.5%, which is an increase of 2.0 percentage points since the last Demoskop poll and means the party is securely over the parliamentary threshold for the first time in several months. The Sweden Democrats continue a downward trend, now at 19.9%. The Left Party, Green Party, and Center Party increase slightly, while the Christian Democrats decrease marginally but remain above the threshold.
Compared to other institutes during March, the Liberals are significantly stronger in this Demoskop poll than in Novus (2.3%) and Kantar-Sifo (2.1%). The Social Democrats' decline is also clear in comparison with other institutes, but the party remains the largest in support.
Method and uncertainty
Demoskop's surveys are conducted regularly with samples of Swedish voters. Margins of error always exist in opinion polls, especially for smaller parties near the threshold. Method details and exact sampling descriptions are usually provided by each institute.
Frequently asked questions about opinion polls
- What does the change in percentage points (p.p.) mean?
The change in percentage points indicates how much a party's support has increased or decreased compared to the previous measurement from the same institute. - How often is public opinion measured?
Opinion polls are published continuously, often every or every other week, by several different institutes. - What is the parliamentary threshold and why is it important?
The parliamentary threshold is 4%. Parties must reach at least this support to gain seats in the parliament. - How should one interpret margin of error?
Margins of error indicate the uncertainty in the results. Small changes may be within the margin of error and do not necessarily imply statistical significance. - What is the difference between voter support and seat distribution?
Voter support is the percentage of voters who say they would vote for a party. Seat distribution shows how these votes are translated into seats in the parliament, which depends on several factors.
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