Public Opinion

Indicator January Poll: Social Democrats Largest, Several Parties Below Threshold

Indicator has published its latest opinion survey ahead of the parliamentary election. The poll shows continued strong support for the Social Democrats, but also that several parties are below the 4% threshold. The results provide a current picture of the political landscape in early 2026.

Summary of results

• Left Party – 7.10% (Δ vs previous: +0.90 p.p.)
• Social Democrats – 35.20% (Δ vs previous: -1.10 p.p.)
• Green Party – 6.40% (Δ vs previous: +1.20 p.p.)
• Centre Party – 3.80% (Δ vs previous: -0.50 p.p.)
• Liberals – 2.10% (Δ vs previous: -0.10 p.p.)
• Moderates – 18.40% (Δ vs previous: +0.30 p.p.)
• Christian Democrats – 2.90% (Δ vs previous: -2.50 p.p.)
• Swedish Democrats – 21.40% (Δ vs previous: +1.10 p.p.)

The Social Democrats, Moderates, Swedish Democrats, Left Party, and Green Party are above the 4% threshold. The Centre Party, Liberals, and Christian Democrats are below the threshold in this poll.

Trends and history

Compared to Indicator's previous survey, the Left Party and Green Party have strengthened their positions, while the Social Democrats and Christian Democrats have lost support. The Swedish Democrats have increased by just over one percentage point. The Centre Party, Liberals, and Christian Democrats have all been below or near the threshold in multiple surveys from different institutes during fall and winter 2025/2026.

The Social Democrats maintain their leading position but have slightly decreased compared to earlier Indicator surveys. The decline of the Christian Democrats is particularly clear, from 5.40% to 2.90% since November. The rise of the Left Party and Green Party in this survey follows a trend of increased variation between institutes, with the Green Party also polling over 6% in other current surveys.

Method and uncertainty

Indicator's survey is one of several regularly conducted to reflect voter opinion. Opinion polls always have a certain margin of error, and results may vary between different institutes and survey occasions. Exact details on sampling and margin of error have not been provided for this survey.

Frequently asked questions about opinion polls

• What does the change in percentage points (Δ) mean?
  The change indicates how the party's support has developed compared to the previous measurement from the same institute, in percentage points.
• How often are opinion polls conducted?
  Opinion institutes publish new polls approximately every month, sometimes more frequently before elections.
• What does the 4% parliamentary threshold mean?
  Parties receiving less than 4% of the votes in a poll risk not entering parliament in an election.
• How does the margin of error affect the results?
  The margin of error indicates the range within which the true support is likely to lie; small differences may fall within the margin of error.
• What is the difference between voter support and mandates?
  Voter support shows the percentage of voters who say they would vote for a party, while mandates are the actual seat distribution in parliament.