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Novus: Stability in Party Support Despite Minor Changes
The latest opinion poll by Novus shows an essentially unchanged situation among the Swedish parliamentary parties compared to the previous measurement. The Social Democrats and Moderates maintain their positions, while the Liberals and Christian Democrats remain below the parliamentary threshold.
Summary of results
- Left Party – 6.90% (Δ vs previous: ±0.00 p.p.)
- Social Democrats – 34.90% (Δ vs previous: ±0.00 p.p.)
- Green Party – 4.40% (Δ vs previous: ±0.00 p.p.)
- Center Party – 5.20% (Δ vs previous: -0.20 p.p.)
- Liberals – 2.20% (Δ vs previous: ±0.00 p.p.)
- Moderates – 19.40% (Δ vs previous: +1.40 p.p.)
- Christian Democrats – 3.70% (Δ vs previous: -0.30 p.p.)
- Swedish Democrats – 22.50% (Δ vs previous: -0.10 p.p.)
The Social Democrats, Moderates, and Swedish Democrats remain the largest parties. The Green Party is just above the 4% threshold, while the Liberals and Christian Democrats are below the threshold.
The Novus survey indicates a stable opinion landscape, where most parties remain at the same levels as before and no significant shifts occur between blocks.
Trends and history
Compared to the previous Novus survey (2025-10-23), the changes are minimal. The Moderates have increased by 1.4 percentage points, while the Center and Christian Democrats have slightly declined. The Social Democrats and Left Party are unchanged. Even in recent surveys from other institutes, no clear trend reversal is observed, although the levels for some parties, such as the Green Party and Liberals, vary slightly between institutes.
The Social Democrats have remained stable around 34–36% during the autumn, while the Swedish Democrats consistently hover around 21–23%. The Moderates now record their highest support in several months according to Novus.
Method and uncertainty
No detailed information about sampling or margin of error has been provided for this Novus survey. Generally, opinion polls have statistical uncertainty, especially for smaller parties and minor changes between measurements.
Frequently asked questions about opinion polls
- What does the change in percentage points (p.p.) mean?
It shows the difference in percentage between this and the previous measurement for a party. - How often are opinion polls published?
Different institutes measure public opinion regularly, often monthly or more frequently before elections. - What is the parliamentary threshold?
Parties must receive at least 4% of the votes to gain seats in parliament. - How is the margin of error interpreted?
The margin of error indicates the interval within which the true support likely lies, given the sample and method. - What is the difference between voter support and seats?
Voter support shows percentage backing, while seats are distributed based on election results and influence the composition of parliament.
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