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Opinion landscape according to Ipsos: Social Democrats decline, Green Party increases
The latest opinion survey from Ipsos shows changes in support for several parties. The Social Democrats are dropping, while the Green Party is experiencing a clear rise. The figures provide an updated picture of the political situation ahead of fall 2025.
Summary of results
- Left Party – 7.0% (Δ vs previous: ±0.0 p.p.)
- Social Democrats – 33.0% (Δ vs previous: –2.0 p.p.)
- Green Party – 6.0% (Δ vs previous: +2.0 p.p.)
- Centre Party – 6.0% (Δ vs previous: ±0.0 p.p.)
- Liberals – 3.0% (Δ vs previous: ±0.0 p.p.)
- Moderates – 19.0% (Δ vs previous: +1.0 p.p.)
- Christian Democrats – 4.0% (Δ vs previous: ±0.0 p.p.)
- Swedish Democrats – 21.0% (Δ vs previous: ±0.0 p.p.)
Among the parties, the Liberals are below the parliamentary threshold of 4%, while the Christian Democrats are just at the threshold.
The Green Party's rise and the Social Democrats' decline are the most notable changes in this Ipsos survey.
Trends and history
Compared to Ipsos's previous survey (September 2025), the Social Democrats have lost 2 percentage points, from 35.0% to 33.0%. The Green Party has increased from 4.0% to 6.0%, showing a clear recovery. The Moderates have gained 1 percentage point, while the other parties remain at the same levels as in the previous Ipsos survey.
According to other institutes in recent weeks, the Social Democrats still lead, but their support has gradually decreased also in Novus and Kantar-Sifo polls. The Sweden Democrats and Moderates have been relatively stable, and the Left Party has consistently hovered around 7% in all surveys. The Liberals have consistently been below the threshold in Ipsos and other institutes.
Blocks and seats
No block or seat distribution has been reported in this Ipsos survey. However, the figures show a close race between the larger parties, and that the threshold is crucial for several smaller parties.
Method and uncertainty
Details about sampling and margin of error have not been provided for this survey. Generally, opinion polls have a certain statistical margin of error. For smaller parties, minor changes may fall within this uncertainty.
Frequently asked questions about opinion polls
- What does the change in percentage points (Δ) mean?
The change (Δ) indicates how a party's support has increased or decreased compared to the previous measurement from the same institute. - How often are opinion polls conducted?
Opinion institutes publish polls at various intervals, often monthly or bi-monthly, sometimes more frequently before elections. - What does the 4% parliamentary threshold mean?
Parties receiving less than 4% in the election typically do not gain seats in parliament, affecting their ability to participate in legislative work. - How should the margin of error be interpreted?
The margin of error indicates the range within which the actual support is likely to lie. Small changes may fall within this margin and are not statistically certain. - What is the difference between voter support and seat distribution?
Voter support shows the percentage of voters who say they would vote for a party, while seat distribution indicates how seats in parliament would be allocated based on these figures.
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