Public Opinion
- Articles
- Public Opinion
Novus: Social Democrats and Moderates increase – Liberals below the threshold
Novus has released its latest opinion poll ahead of the parliamentary election. The survey shows changes for several parties, with both Social Democrats and Moderates increasing slightly, while Liberals lose ground and fall below the parliamentary threshold. The figures provide a current picture of the political situation in autumn 2025.
Summary of results
- Left Party – 6.90 % (Δ vs previous: +0.30 p.p.)
- Social Democrats – 34.90 % (Δ vs previous: +0.30 p.p.)
- Green Party – 4.40 % (Δ vs previous: -0.20 p.p.)
- Centre Party – 5.40 % (Δ vs previous: +0.20 p.p.)
- Liberals – 2.20 % (Δ vs previous: -0.80 p.p.)
- Moderates – 18.00 % (Δ vs previous: +1.00 p.p.)
- Christian Democrats – 4.00 % (Δ vs previous: +0.90 p.p.)
- Sweden Democrats – 22.60 % (Δ vs previous: -1.30 p.p.)
Among parliamentary parties, the Liberals are clearly below the 4 % threshold. The Christian Democrats and Green Party are close to the threshold but, according to this poll, just above it.
Novus's latest poll indicates a continued stable lead for the Social Democrats, while the Liberals are now experiencing their weakest support in a long time.
Trends and history
Compared to Novus's previous poll (September 24), the Social Democrats and Moderates have increased slightly, while the Sweden Democrats have lost support. The Liberals continue a downward trend and have now lost nearly 1 percentage point in a month according to Novus. The Christian Democrats are showing a clear increase, reaching 4.00 %. The Green Party has decreased marginally but remains above the threshold.
Among other institutes, the Social Democrats have remained stable between 34–36 % in recent months. The Sweden Democrats have fluctuated between 19–24 %, and the Moderates between 17–19 %. The Liberals have in several polls been close to or below the threshold, which is now confirmed by Novus.
Frequently asked questions about opinion polls
- What does the change in percentage points mean?
The change shows how the party's support has developed since the previous measurement from the same institute. An increase of, for example, 1.0 percentage point means the party has grown by 1 percent of voter support. - How often are opinion polls conducted?
Different institutes publish polls at regular intervals, often monthly or more frequently during election years. - What is the parliamentary threshold?
Parties must receive at least 4 % of the votes in the parliamentary election to enter parliament. - How is the margin of error interpreted?
The margin of error shows the range within which the actual support is likely to lie. The smaller the sample, the larger the margin of error. - What is the difference between voter support and mandates?
Voter support is the percentage of voters who say they would vote for a party. Mandates are the seats the party gains in parliament based on election results.
Sweden's national debt
-
Opinion Poll Status Novus: Unchanged Support – Social Democrats Largest
Wed, 19 Nov 2025 - 08:35 -
The National Debt – Level, Development, and Significance for Sweden
Wed, 8 Oct 2025 - 08:00
