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Opinion Polling According to Ipsos: Social Democrats Rise, Liberals Below Threshold
The latest opinion poll from Ipsos shows clear shifts among the parliamentary parties. The Social Democrats are gaining, while the Liberals fall below the threshold. The poll is particularly interesting given that several parties are switching places around the threshold and the gap between blocs continues to develop.
Summary of Results
- Vänsterpartiet – 7.00% (Δ vs previous: ±0.00 p.p.)
- Social Democrats – 35.00% (Δ vs previous: +1.00 p.p.)
- Green Party – 4.00% (Δ vs previous: -1.00 p.p.)
- Center Party – 6.00% (Δ vs previous: +1.00 p.p.)
- Liberals – 3.00% (Δ vs previous: -1.00 p.p.)
- Moderates – 18.00% (Δ vs previous: +1.00 p.p.)
- Christian Democrats – 4.00% (Δ vs previous: -1.00 p.p.)
- Swedish Democrats – 21.00% (Δ vs previous: +1.00 p.p.)
Among the parties, the Green Party and Christian Democrats are exactly at the 4% threshold, while the Liberals fall below the threshold.
Ipsos polling indicates continued strong support for the Social Democrats and that the Liberals again risk being outside the parliament.
Trends and Historical Overview
Compared to Ipsos's previous survey (August 2025), the Social Democrats have increased by 1 percentage point to 35%. The Moderates, Center Party, and Swedish Democrats have also each increased by 1 percentage point. The Green Party, Christian Democrats, and Liberals each lost 1 percentage point, with the Liberals falling below the 3% threshold. The Left Party remains at the same level as before.
Looking further back at Ipsos's surveys during the year, it is noted that the Social Democrats have strengthened their position, while the Liberals have fluctuated around the threshold and are now again below it. The Green Party and Christian Democrats are balancing on the edge, while the Moderates and Swedish Democrats show signs of smaller but stable increases.
Blocs and Seats
This survey does not report any bloc summaries or seat distributions from Ipsos. However, developments around the threshold and changes between parties could influence bloc balance in the future.
Methodology and Uncertainty
In Ipsos's survey, voter opinion has been mapped according to the institute's standard method. Exact details about sample selection, field period, or margin of error are not provided in the available data. Generally, small changes may fall within the statistical margin of error.
Frequently Asked Questions about Opinion Polls
- What does the change in percentage points mean?
The change in percentage points (p.p.) shows how much a party's support has increased or decreased compared to the previous measurement. - How often are opinion polls conducted?
Opinion polls are published continuously, often weekly or biweekly by different institutes. - What does the parliamentary threshold mean?
Parties need at least 4% of the votes to enter parliament. Parties below the threshold receive no seats. - How should the margin of error be interpreted?
The margin of error indicates the interval within which the actual support is likely to lie. Small changes may be statistically uncertain. - What is the difference between voter support and seats?
Voter support shows the percentage of voters who say they would vote for a party, while seats refer to the number of seats the party would get in parliament.
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