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Novus: The Sweden Democrats increase sharply – the Left Party loses support
Novus's latest opinion poll shows clear shifts in voter support. Notably, the Sweden Democrats are gaining significantly, while the Left Party is losing ground. The survey provides a current snapshot of party support ahead of autumn 2025.
Results at a glance
- Left Party – 6.60 % (Δ vs previous: –2.0 p.p.)
- Social Democrats – 34.60 % (Δ vs previous: +0.5 p.p.)
- Green Party – 4.60 % (Δ vs previous: –0.3 p.p.)
- Center – 5.20 % (Δ vs previous: +0.2 p.p.)
- Liberals – 3.00 % (Δ vs previous: ±0.0 p.p.)
- Moderates – 17.00 % (Δ vs previous: –0.6 p.p.)
- Christian Democrats – 3.10 % (Δ vs previous: –0.8 p.p.)
- Sweden Democrats – 23.90 % (Δ vs previous: +2.9 p.p.)
Among parliamentary parties, the Liberals (3.0 %) and Christian Democrats (3.1 %) are below the 4 percent threshold, while the other parties are above the threshold.
The increase of the Sweden Democrats and the decline of the Left Party stand out in the latest Novus survey, while several smaller parties continue to struggle against the parliamentary threshold.
Trends and history
The Sweden Democrats have risen from 21.0 % to 23.9 % since Novus's previous measurement on August 27, representing one of the largest changes among parties. Meanwhile, the Left Party has lost 2.0 percentage points, from 8.6 % to 6.6 %. The Social Democrats remain stable with a slight increase of 0.5 percentage points. The Moderates have decreased slightly and now stand at 17.0 %, while the Green Party and Center move marginally. The Christian Democrats and Liberals are both below the threshold, with the Christian Democrats losing 0.8 percentage points.
Compared to other institutes in recent weeks, a similar trend is visible: the Sweden Democrats have gained support also in Kantar-Sifo and Indikator surveys, while the Left Party has retreated in several polls. The Social Democrats have remained stable around 34–36 % in most surveys. For the smaller parties, uncertainty regarding the parliamentary threshold continues.
Method and uncertainty
Novus conducts regular opinion surveys with samples intended to be representative of the electorate. Margins of error in this type of measurement mean that smaller differences between parties or over time may fall within statistical uncertainty. Exact methodological details have not been provided in the current data.
Frequently asked questions about opinion polls
- What does the change in percentage points (p.p.) mean?
A change in percentage points indicates the difference in support compared to the previous measurement, making it easy to see whether a party is gaining or losing support. - How often are opinion surveys conducted?
Opinion polls are regularly published by several institutes, often monthly or more frequently before elections and political events. - What does the parliamentary threshold mean?
The parliamentary threshold is 4 %. Parties below this limit usually do not receive seats in parliament. - How should the margin of error be interpreted?
The margin of error indicates the range within which the true support is likely to lie. Small differences between parties may therefore lack actual significance. - What is the difference between voter support and seats?
Voter support is the percentage of voters who say they would vote for a party. Seats show how this support would translate into parliamentary positions.
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