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Opinion Trends According to Ipsos: Social Democrats Rise, Liberals Surpass Threshold
The latest opinion poll from Ipsos shows changes in voter support for several parties. The survey, recently published, provides an up-to-date picture of the party standings ahead of the political autumn. Notably, the Liberals now reach the parliamentary threshold after a longer period below 4 percent.
Summary of Results
- Left Party – 7.00% (Δ vs previous: −1.00 p.p.)
- Social Democrats – 34.00% (Δ vs previous: +1.00 p.p.)
- Green Party – 5.00% (Δ vs previous: ±0.00 p.p.)
- Centre Party – 5.00% (Δ vs previous: −1.00 p.p.)
- Liberals – 4.00% (Δ vs previous: +2.00 p.p.)
- Moderates – 17.00% (Δ vs previous: −2.00 p.p.)
- Christian Democrats – 5.00% (Δ vs previous: +1.00 p.p.)
- Swedish Democrats – 20.00% (Δ vs previous: +1.00 p.p.)
All parties except the Liberals remain above the 4% threshold. The Liberals reach the threshold for the first time in several months according to Ipsos.
Ipsos notes that the Liberals now reach the threshold while the Moderates lose support and the Social Democrats strengthen their lead.
Trends and Historical Data
Compared to Ipsos's previous survey in June, the Social Democrats have increased from 33 to 34 percent. The Liberals have made a significant rise from 2 to 4 percent and thus reach the threshold. The Left Party and the Centre Party both decrease by 1 percentage point, while the Moderates decline by 2 percentage points. The Christian Democrats and the Swedish Democrats each increase by 1 percentage point.
Several other institutes have recently shown a relatively stable position for the Social Democrats and the Swedish Democrats, while the Liberals continue to be below the threshold in most surveys. The Moderates have experienced a slight decline in support across multiple measurements.
Methodology and Uncertainty
Ipsos does not disclose details about the sample or margin of error in this report. Generally, changes of around 1 percentage point are within the statistical margin of error.
Frequently Asked Questions about Opinion Polls
- What does the change in percentage points (p.p.) mean?
It shows the difference in support between two measurements, for example, if a party increased from 5% to 6%, the change is +1 percentage point. - How often is opinion measured in Sweden?
Major institutes publish surveys at least once a month, sometimes more frequently during election periods. - What does the 4% parliament threshold mean?
A party must receive at least 4% of the votes in the general election to enter parliament. - How does the margin of error affect the results?
Small changes between measurements can fall within the margin of error and are not necessarily statistically significant. - What is the difference between voter support and mandates?
Voter support indicates the percentage of voters who would vote for a party, while mandates are seats in parliament allocated based on the election results.
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