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Novus: Social Democrats decrease, Left Party increases in August survey
Novus has presented its latest opinion poll on voter support for the Swedish parliamentary parties. The survey shows minor changes for several parties, but also clear shifts for some. The Social Democrats have lost some support, while the Left Party and Sweden Democrats are gaining.
Results at a glance
- Left Party – 8.60 % (Δ vs previous: +1.2 p.p.)
- Social Democrats – 34.10 % (Δ: -1.2 p.p.)
- Green Party – 4.90 % (Δ: -0.6 p.p.)
- Center – 5.00 % (Δ: -0.4 p.p.)
- Liberals – 3.00 % (Δ: +0.9 p.p.)
- Moderates – 17.60 % (Δ: -0.7 p.p.)
- Christian Democrats – 3.90 % (Δ: +0.1 p.p.)
- Sweden Democrats – 21.00 % (Δ: +0.8 p.p.)
Among the parties, the Green Party is just above the parliamentary threshold (4 %), while Liberals (3.00 %) and Christian Democrats (3.90 %) still do not reach the threshold in this survey.
The Social Democrats are losing support in Novus's August survey, while the Left Party and Sweden Democrats are strengthening their positions. The small parties' status around the threshold remains uncertain.
Trends and history
Compared to Novus's previous survey in June, the Left Party has increased from 7.40 % to 8.60 %, while the Social Democrats have decreased from 35.30 % to 34.10 %. The Sweden Democrats continue to grow and now reach 21.00 % (+0.8 percentage points). The Green Party and Center both lost slightly, but the Green Party remains above the threshold. The Moderates have decreased by 0.7 percentage points and are now at 17.60 %.
Liberals show a clear increase from 2.10 % to 3.00 %, but the party still remains below the parliamentary threshold. The Christian Democrats remain under the threshold but have increased marginally.
Method and uncertainty
Novus conducted the survey with a representative sample of Swedish voters. As with all opinion polls, there is a statistical margin of error, meaning small changes between surveys are not always statistically significant.
Common questions about opinion polls
- What does the change in percentage points (Δ) mean?
It shows the difference in voter support compared to the previous survey from the same institute. - How often are opinion polls published?
Different institutes publish surveys at varying intervals, but larger surveys are usually released monthly. - What does the 4 % parliamentary threshold mean?
Parties must receive at least 4 % of the votes in a general election to gain seats in the parliament. - How should the margin of error be interpreted?
The margin of error indicates that the results can vary slightly up or down without representing a true change in opinion. - What is the difference between voter support and mandates?
Voter support is the percentage of voters who say they would vote for a party. Mandates are the actual seats in parliament that the party would receive in an election.
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