Public Opinion

KD Back Over the Riksdag Threshold – Liberal Party's Split Increases Uncertainty Ahead of the Election

The latest voter barometer from Novus for March 2026 shows that the Christian Democrats (KD) have once again crossed the Riksdag's four percent threshold following a statistically significant rise. At the same time, the Liberal Party's (L) previous decline has been halted, but the party now faces an internal split regarding cooperation with the Sweden Democrats (SD). SD has lost some support but remains larger than the Moderate Party (M).

What could the changes in public opinion mean for government formation?

KD's return above the threshold means that the Tidö parties potentially have a stronger starting position ahead of the 2026 election. At the same time, the picture remains uncertain. The Liberal Party's split – where only just over half of its own supporters want to see SD in a government – could make it difficult to reach a unified line in post-election negotiations. If L chooses not to cooperate with SD, it could lead to a need for new alliances or create uncertainty about which government can be formed.

How should public opinion be interpreted – and what could it mean for you as a voter?

• Opinion polls are snapshots: Novus emphasizes that the polls reflect the mood right now and are not exact predictions of the election result. Rapid swings can be due to temporary media attention or current debates.
• The Liberal Party's internal split indicates uncertainty: The fact that only half of L's supporters want to let SD into the government suggests that the party may struggle to rally its supporters around a clear government line. For you considering voting for L, it may be relevant to follow how the party handles this issue up to the election.
• KD's position remains sensitive: Even though KD is now above the threshold, the party has recently been below it and depends on maintaining its support. Small changes in public opinion can have a major impact on their future role.
• SD's loss but continued size: SD has decreased somewhat in support but is still larger than M. This affects the balance of power within the Tidö group, but it is unclear how this will affect negotiations over government power after the election.

How to approach opinion figures ahead of the election

• View opinion polls as an indication of which issues and parties are in motion, rather than a definitive answer for election day.
• Observe how parties change their policies and rhetoric as public opinion shifts – this can provide clues about possible future collaborations and government alternatives.
• If you are unsure about your party choice, consider which issues and government constellations feel most important to you, rather than focusing on temporary figures.

Important things to keep in mind when interpreting opinion polls

• The polls show the views of party supporters, not the entire electorate. For example, the Liberal Party's split applies only among those who currently sympathize with the party.
• The uncertainty in the polls is greater the closer a party is to the threshold – small changes can have a large effect on the composition of the Riksdag.
• The state of public opinion can change rapidly, especially in the final stages of the election campaign when many voters make up their minds.