Inflation

Inflation Remains Stable – What Does This Mean for Household Economies?

Statistics Sweden's (SCB) latest figures for February 2026 show that inflation according to the CPI remained unchanged at 0.5 percent compared to the same month last year. This means that prices for goods and services in the household consumption basket have not changed significantly. At the same time, inflation according to the CPIF, which excludes the effect of changes in mortgage interest rates, has fallen to 1.7 percent from 2.0 percent in January.

Why Does This Matter for Households?

• A low inflation rate according to the CPI means that most goods and services have not become much more expensive over the past year. This can provide households with some relief in their daily finances, especially after periods of higher price increases.
• The CPIF, which is the measure the Riksbank uses for its inflation target, shows slightly higher inflation than the CPI. This may indicate that mortgage interest costs remain a significant expense, even though these costs are now rising more slowly than before.
• The price base amount for 2026 has been adjusted upwards by 0.5 percent, which may affect certain benefits and taxes.

How Should Households Approach Economics, Interest Rates, and Savings?

• The low CPI inflation means that household money goes further for running expenses. Prices for items such as food and clothing are rising at a very slow pace, which can create more room in the wallet.
• Housing costs, particularly for households with variable-rate mortgages, continue to be a major item in the budget. Even though the CPIF is falling, it shows that the cost situation for housing remains higher than for other consumption.
• For savers, the stable inflation means that the economic situation is less uncertain than before. If the trend continues, it could affect the Riksbank's future decisions regarding the policy rate, but it is difficult to say when or how quickly any changes will occur.
• For households facing major economic decisions, such as buying a home or making larger investments, it may be wise to follow the development of both the CPI and the CPIF. Since the Riksbank steers based on the CPIF, this is the measure that will primarily influence interest rates in the future.

What to Keep an Eye On Going Forward

• The difference between the CPI and the CPIF is important: the CPI shows how households' total costs develop, while the CPIF shows price development without the effect of changed mortgage interest rates.
• Since the CPIF is below the Riksbank's target of 2 percent, it could affect interest rates in the long run, but it is uncertain when or if any changes will occur.
• The data applies to February 2026. To get a current picture of the development, it is good to regularly follow SCB's and the Riksbank's reporting on inflation and interest rates.