Swedens Policy Rate

The policy rate stands still – but mortgage rates are already rising

On March 19, 2026, the Riksbank announced that the policy rate would remain unchanged at 1.75 percent. The decision was justified by the fact that forecasts are highly uncertain, partly due to rising oil prices and uncertainty in the global economy. At the same time, the Riksbank and several analysts have warned that a series of rate hikes could begin soon – possibly earlier than many expected.

Despite the policy rate remaining unchanged, several banks have already raised their mortgage rates. Sources point to this being driven by expectations of future increases in the policy rate as well as increased funding costs for the banks. This means that households' borrowing costs may rise before the official monetary policy actually changes.

Why does this matter so much for households?

• Mortgage borrowers: Many households are now noticing that their mortgage rates are rising even though the Riksbank has not yet raised the policy rate. Banks often price in expectations of future monetary conditions and their own funding costs, meaning rate hikes can hit mortgages in advance.
• Personal loans: Interest rates on personal loans can also be affected by banks' expectations, although the effect is often less clear than for mortgages. Higher funding costs for banks can still lead to higher rates in this area as well.
• Savings: For those saving money in an account, an unchanged policy rate means that savings rates will likely not be affected now. If a rate-hiking cycle begins, it could mean better conditions further down the line, although it often takes time before banks raise savings rates at the same pace as lending rates.
• Everyday economics: The long period of low interest rates may be over. Higher borrowing costs can affect households' finances quickly, even before the Riksbank acts, because banks are acting on future expectations.

How should you as a consumer think about this development?

• It is reasonable to be prepared for interest costs on mortgages and other loans to continue rising even if the Riksbank does not raise the policy rate immediately. Banks' actions are driven by several factors, including their own risk assessments and market expectations.
• For savers, it may be good to follow the development closely. There is currently no direct benefit from higher savings rates, but if a wave of rate hikes comes, it may become relevant in the future.
• If you have variable-rate loans, it may be worth reviewing your finances and calculating what higher interest rates would mean for your monthly costs. However, avoid making hasty decisions based on short-term headlines, as the forecasts are still uncertain.

What lies behind the banks' actions?

Sources highlight that the banks' increases in mortgage rates, despite an unchanged policy rate, may be because they need to account for future risks and costs. Banks must finance themselves in the market, and if their own funding costs increase – for example due to expected monetary tightening or unrest in financial markets – this also affects customers' interest rates. Analysts also point out that banks may want to stay one step ahead to avoid having to make quick, large rate hikes later.

However, there is uncertainty regarding exactly how quickly and how much the policy rate will rise. The Riksbank has emphasized that the forecasts are unusually difficult to assess, which means that both households and banks are acting cautiously.

Summary

• The policy rate remains at 1.75%, but banks have already begun raising mortgage rates.
• Households with loans may need to expect increased costs – sometimes faster than official monetary policy indicates.
• The development suggests that we may be entering a period where interest conditions change more rapidly, although exact timing is difficult to predict.