Swedens Policy Rate

Mortgage rates rise despite unchanged benchmark rate – what does it mean for you?

The Riksbank has recently chosen to leave the benchmark rate unchanged, citing an uncertain forecast and the risk of stagflation. At the same time, several major banks have begun raising their mortgage rates. This means that households may face higher interest costs, even though the central bank's rate has not changed.

What has happened?

• In March 2026, the Riksbank decided not to change the benchmark rate, citing a highly uncertain forecast and concerns about stagflation.
• Several of the largest banks have nevertheless raised their mortgage rates in recent times.
• Experts disagree on how quickly the Riksbank might raise rates in the future. Some argue that it could happen sooner than the market expects if inflation is not curbed, while others believe there is room to wait and see.

Why are banks raising mortgage rates?

Sources point to several possible reasons why banks are raising mortgage rates despite an unchanged benchmark rate. These include rising funding costs, increased concern about inflation, and uncertainty in the global market. It may also be that banks are trying to hedge against future interest rate changes. Altogether, this means that mortgage rates do not always follow the Riksbank's benchmark rate directly but are influenced by several factors.

What does this mean for household finances?

Rising mortgage rates without a change in the benchmark rate makes it harder to predict future costs. The monthly cost of a mortgage can increase even if the central bank has made no changes. This particularly affects those with variable-rate loans or those planning to refinance their loans soon. Savings rates and the terms for personal loans may also be affected, though often with a delay.

How should you think about mortgages, savings, and daily finances?

• It is important to distinguish between the benchmark rate (the Riksbank's rate) and the mortgage rate (the banks' rate), as they do not always move in tandem.
• Uncertainty regarding inflation and future interest rate decisions makes it difficult to determine when and by how much rates might change. Some experts believe the Riksbank has room to wait, while others warn of earlier hikes.
• Those who have or plan to take out a mortgage may need to calculate different interest rate scenarios in their budget and not assume that today's interest rate environment will persist.
• Stagflation – that is, the combination of weak growth and high inflation – means that both borrowers and savers can be negatively affected. Borrowers may face higher interest costs, while savers may see the value of their capital eroded by inflation.
• There are no guarantees regarding what will be most advantageous in the future concerning whether to fix or not fix the interest rate. It may be wise to follow interest rate developments and review your finances regularly.

Uncertain forecast – what could happen ahead?

The Riksbank has emphasized that the forecast is unusually uncertain. Rising oil prices, geopolitical concerns, and inflationary pressure mean that decisions by both banks and the Riksbank could change rapidly. The market is trying to interpret the signals, but there is no clear guidance on when the next interest rate change will occur.

For households and individuals, this means that economic foresight and flexibility may become more important than before. Having margins in your budget and the ability to adapt to new interest rate terms can make it easier if the interest rate environment changes unexpectedly.