Swedens Policy Rate

Mortgage rates rise despite unchanged benchmark rate – how it affects your wallet

Although the Riksbank chose to keep the benchmark rate unchanged in its latest decision, several of the largest banks have recently raised their mortgage rates. This means that household interest costs can increase even without a direct decision from the Riksbank to raise the benchmark rate. For many, this may seem contradictory, but the development reflects several factors influencing both banks' decisions and household finances.

What has happened?

• The Riksbank kept the benchmark rate unchanged on March 19, 2026, despite concerns about inflation and rising oil prices.
• Major banks have nonetheless chosen to raise their mortgage rates starting from the end of March.
• Experts warn that the Riksbank may need to raise the benchmark rate sooner than expected if inflationary pressure does not subside.
• The banks' rate hikes are described by several sources as a precautionary measure and a reaction to expectations regarding future monetary policy.

Why does this matter for your finances?

When banks raise mortgage rates, the monthly cost increases for both new and existing loans with variable interest rates. For households with large mortgages, even a small increase can be clearly felt in the budget. This occurs while the benchmark rate remains unchanged, which can create uncertainty about what actually drives mortgage rates.

There are several possible explanations for the banks' actions. Sources point to rising oil prices and fears of so-called stagflation – meaning high inflation while the economy stagnates – leading banks to hedge against increased financing costs in the future. If the market assesses that the Riksbank may need to raise the benchmark rate to counteract inflation, banks may choose to adjust their rates in advance.

For you as a borrower, this means your interest costs can rise even if the official benchmark rate does not change. This makes it more difficult to predict how household finances will be affected in the short term.

How should you think about mortgages, personal loans, and savings?

• Mortgages: If you have a variable rate, your monthly cost can increase even if the Riksbank does not change the benchmark rate. It may be wise to follow developments from both the banks and the Riksbank.
• Personal loans: Interest rates on personal loans can be affected in a similar way to mortgages, although changes sometimes occur with a slight delay.
• Savings: The interest rate on savings accounts and other interest-bearing accounts is not always affected as quickly by banks' rate changes. Therefore, it may be worth checking the terms of your savings and reviewing alternatives if the rate remains unchanged.

Since experts highlight the risk that the Riksbank may raise the benchmark rate faster than previous forecasts, it may be wise to pay extra attention to how quickly your finances could be affected by new interest rate announcements. However, it remains uncertain exactly when and how large any potential increases will be.

The difference between the Riksbank's rate and the banks' rates

The benchmark rate is the tool the Riksbank uses to influence inflation and the economy as a whole. Banks' mortgage rates, on the other hand, are driven by several factors, including expectations of future benchmark rates, the banks' own funding costs, and competition in the market. Therefore, mortgage rates may start to move upward before the Riksbank actually changes its benchmark rate.

It is thus not uncommon for banks' rates to be adjusted in advance, especially when there is uncertainty about economic developments. Following both the Riksbank's signals and the banks' actions can provide a better picture of where interest rates are heading.