Inflation

The latest inflation figures from Statistics Sweden (SCB) show that price increases in Sweden have slowed down. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures price developments for goods and services purchased by households, remained at 0.5 percent in February 2026 compared to the same month last year. At the same time, inflation according to CPIF, which excludes the effect of interest rate changes on mortgages, has fallen to 1.7 percent from 2.0 percent in January.

Why is the difference between CPI and CPIF important?

CPI shows how much prices for everything from food and clothing to services have increased. CPIF excludes the effect of interest rate changes on mortgages. The fact that CPIF is currently higher than CPI is linked to the fact that interest costs are still a significant expense for many households. For those with mortgages with variable interest rates, the economic impact may therefore feel greater than what the CPI indicates.

What does low inflation mean for household purchasing power?

• Prices for groceries and services are rising slowly, meaning household money goes further than during periods of higher inflation.

How are interest rates and loans affected?

• CPIF is the metric the Riksbank uses for its interest rate decisions. Since CPIF is now below the inflation target of 2 percent, it could influence future interest rate announcements, but several months of data are needed to see a clear trend.
• Households with variable-rate mortgages still face high interest costs, even as CPIF falls. This means the monthly cost of loans has not yet decreased significantly.

What should households keep in mind?

• Low inflation provides greater predictability for those planning major purchases, such as a home or a car, as prices are not rising rapidly.
• For savers, low inflation means the value of money erodes more slowly, which can be positive for those with funds in savings accounts or bond funds.
• If inflation continues to remain below the Riksbank's target, it could eventually affect the interest rate environment, but it is too early to draw conclusions about this at this stage.

Factors to keep an eye on

• The difference between CPI and CPIF is unusually large. CPIF is particularly relevant for households with mortgages, as it shows price developments without the effect of changing interest rates.
• Interest rate decisions by the Riksbank are based on several months of statistics, and the trend could change if the economy takes a new turn.
• These figures apply to February 2026, which is the latest available official statistics.

For households, today's inflation situation means that the everyday economy is more stable than it has been in a long time, even though interest costs still affect many. Those planning major financial decisions can benefit from a calmer price development, but it may be wise to continue monitoring developments in the interest rate market.