Swedens Policy Rate

Mortgage rates rise despite unchanged reference rate: How it affects your wallet

On March 19, 2026, the Riksbank chose to leave the reference rate unchanged at 1.75 percent. Many associate this with interest rates in society also remaining static, but towards the end of March, several major banks have nonetheless raised their mortgage rates. This raises questions about why mortgage costs can increase even when the Riksbank has not changed its rate – and what this could mean for you as a homeowner, private borrower, or saver.

What has happened and why?

• The reference rate, determined by the Riksbank, remains at 1.75 percent following the latest decision.
• Despite this, several major banks have raised mortgage rates towards the end of March 2026.
• The banks' actions are linked to increased interest rate expectations in the market and concerns that inflation could gain momentum, particularly related to energy prices.
• Analysts and banks, such as SEB, have also raised their forecasts for future reference rates.

This demonstrates that banks do not merely follow the Riksbank's decisions but also make their own assessments of future risks and costs. When the market expects higher rates in the future, banks may sometimes choose to adjust their rates in advance to adapt to the changed interest rate environment.

Why does this matter for households and savers?

When mortgage rates rise before the reference rate changes, households' interest rates on both mortgages and private loans can be affected without this being visible in the official interest rate announcements from the Riksbank. This means your monthly costs could increase even if the reference rate remains unchanged.

This applies particularly if you have a mortgage with a variable interest rate, as these loans are directly affected by the banks' adjustments. For those with fixed rates, no change occurs until the fixed period expires and a new agreement is signed.

Rising rates can also affect savings. If banks raise deposit rates in line with the market, it could yield slightly better returns on savings accounts, though this varies between different banks and account types.

How should you think about your finances?

• Check whether your mortgage is variable or fixed. Variable loans are affected more quickly by the banks' adjustments.
• Be aware that interest costs can rise even if the Riksbank has not raised its reference rate.
• Compare terms at different banks and follow their own press releases to keep track of when and how they change their rates.
• If you are considering taking out new loans, it may be wise to create margins in your finances to handle potentially higher interest costs in the future.
• Also keep an eye out for potential increases in savings rates, but always carefully check which terms apply to your specific account.

It is important to distinguish between the reference rate (decided by the Riksbank) and the mortgage rate (set by the banks themselves based on their own assessments and market conditions). The market can sometimes react faster than the official reference rate, especially when there are concerns about inflation or changed expectations regarding future interest rate decisions.