Swedens Policy Rate

The Central Bank Keeps the Policy Rate Unchanged at 3.75%

The central bank has announced today that the policy rate, also known as the repo rate, remains unchanged at 3.75%. This decision comes after a period of stability where the rate has been held at the same level since April 2024. The central bank's decision is a response to recent inflation developments and economic conditions in Sweden.

Impact on Mortgage Loans

For Swedish households, this decision means that mortgage interest rates are expected to remain stable. Banks usually add a markup of around 1% to the repo rate when setting their mortgage interest rates. With the current repo rate at 3.75%, we can expect mortgage interest rates to be around 4.75%.

Mortgage Calculation

Here is a calculation of what a mortgage can cost at different loan amounts:

• Mortgage of 1 million SEK: With an interest rate of 4.75%, the annual interest cost would be 47,500 SEK, equivalent to approximately 3,958 SEK per month.
• Mortgage of 3 million SEK: With an interest rate of 4.75%, the annual interest cost would be 142,500 SEK, equivalent to approximately 11,875 SEK per month.
• Mortgage of 5 million SEK: With an interest rate of 4.75%, the annual interest cost would be 237,500 SEK, equivalent to approximately 19,792 SEK per month.

Personal Loans

For personal loans, which often have a higher markup than mortgage loans, we can expect interest rates around 6.25% (3.75% + 2.5%). This means that the cost of personal loans will also remain stable for the time being.

Inflation and Future Interest Rates

Inflation, measured by CPIF, has shown a downward trend in recent months and is now at 1.3%. This is a significant decrease from the high levels seen in 2023, when inflation reached as high as 10.2% in December 2022. This decline in inflation is one of the reasons the central bank has chosen to keep the rate unchanged.

If this trend continues and inflation continues to decrease, we can expect the central bank to consider lowering the rate in the future. Conversely, if inflation were to rise again, further rate hikes could be on the table.

Forecast for Food Prices, Fuel Prices, and Energy Prices

Food prices have somewhat stabilized after a sharp increase in 2023. Fuel prices and energy prices have also shown signs of stabilization but are still at relatively high levels compared to historical data. If inflation continues to decline, we can expect some relief in these costs for households.

Summary

The central bank's decision to keep the policy rate unchanged at 3.75% provides continued stability for mortgage rates and personal loan rates. The downward trend in inflation offers some optimism for the future, but it is important to closely monitor the developments to see how the economy and prices evolve.